Was the forecast right for Tampa on Sat Sep 12?
Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Tampa's Sat Sep 12 high anywhere from 84° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 91° against the TPA observations — thunderstorms.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-28 | — | 92° | — | — | 90° | — | — | 90–92° |
| 14d · 2026-08-29 | 91° | 85° | — | — | 94° | — | — | 85–94° |
| 13d · 2026-08-30 | 88° | 92° | 84° | — | 91° | — | — | 84–92° |
| 12d · 2026-08-31 | 91° | 90° | 83° | — | 92° | — | — | 83–92° |
| 11d · 2026-09-01 | 91° | 93° | 90° | — | 97° | — | — | 90–97° |
| 10d · 2026-09-02 | 87° | 91° | 83° | — | 95° | — | — | 83–95° |
| 9d · 2026-09-03 | 84° | 93° | 89° | — | 96° | — | — | 84–96° |
| 8d · 2026-09-04 | 86° | 92° | 89° | 92° | 96° | — | — | 86–96° |
| 7d · 2026-09-05 | 88° | 92° | 86° | 91° | 96° | — | — | 86–96° |
| 6d · 2026-09-06 | 87° | 91° | 88° | 93° | 92° | 91° | — | 87–93° |
| 5d · 2026-09-07 | 88° | 91° | 88° | 91° | 95° | 90° | 91° | 88–95° |
| 4d · 2026-09-08 | 87° | 90° | 86° | 88° | 96° | 91° | 90° | 86–96° |
| 3d · 2026-09-09 | 87° | 91° | 88° | 90° | 97° | 92° | 94° | 87–97° |
| 2d · 2026-09-10 | 89° | 92° | 89° | 93° | 94° | 92° | 90° | 89–94° |
| 1d · 2026-09-11 | 88° | 92° | 88° | 94° | 94° | 91° | 89° | 88–94° |
| 0d · 2026-09-12 | 88° | 92° | 87° | 94° | 95° | 91° | 90° | 87–95° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.