Was the forecast right for Tampa on Mon Sep 7?
Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Tampa's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 83° to 95°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 87° against the TPA observations, with 0.28 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.5°. GFS ran 5° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-08-25 | 91° | 94° | 83° | — | 95° | — | — | 83–95° |
| 12d · 2026-08-26 | 91° | 92° | 87° | — | 97° | — | — | 87–97° |
| 11d · 2026-08-27 | 92° | 93° | 90° | — | 95° | — | — | 90–95° |
| 10d · 2026-08-28 | 80° | 93° | 86° | — | 96° | — | — | 80–96° |
| 9d · 2026-08-29 | 79° | 80° | 89° | — | 94° | — | — | 79–94° |
| 8d · 2026-08-30 | 82° | 87° | 88° | 86° | 93° | — | — | 82–93° |
| 7d · 2026-08-31 | 83° | 86° | 82° | 88° | 93° | — | — | 82–93° |
| 6d · 2026-09-01 | 85° | 87° | 83° | 91° | 94° | 88° | — | 83–94° |
| 5d · 2026-09-02 | 86° | 88° | 87° | 92° | 90° | 92° | 90° | 86–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-03 | 84° | 86° | 87° | 91° | 94° | 92° | 92° | 84–94° |
| 3d · 2026-09-04 | 85° | 88° | 86° | 90° | 94° | 92° | 90° | 85–94° |
| 2d · 2026-09-05 | 85° | 88° | 87° | 94° | 93° | 89° | 88° | 85–94° |
| 1d · 2026-09-06 | 85° | 87° | 88° | 94° | 94° | 90° | 87° | 85–94° |
| 0d · 2026-09-07 | 85° | 88° | 88° | 92° | 92° | 89° | 86° | 85–92° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.