Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Mon Oct 26?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
13 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Mon Oct 26 high anywhere from 63° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 75°. The day verified at 77° against the STL observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.0°. ECMWF ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-11 | — | 60° | — | — | 62° | — | — | 60–62° |
| 14d · 2026-10-12 | — | 62° | 61° | — | 58° | — | — | 58–62° |
| 13d · 2026-10-13 | 63° | 66° | 79° | — | 64° | — | — | 63–79° |
| 12d · 2026-10-14 | 56° | 60° | 74° | — | 61° | — | — | 56–74° |
| 11d · 2026-10-15 | 75° | 74° | 80° | — | 80° | — | — | 74–80° |
| 10d · 2026-10-16 | 72° | 54° | 73° | — | 74° | — | — | 54–74° |
| 9d · 2026-10-17 | 76° | 72° | 72° | 74° | 62° | — | — | 62–76° |
| 8d · 2026-10-18 | 70° | 69° | 75° | 72° | 72° | — | — | 69–75° |
| 7d · 2026-10-19 | 75° | 74° | 66° | 74° | 74° | — | — | 66–75° |
| 6d · 2026-10-20 | 76° | 75° | 71° | 74° | 75° | 75° | 69° | 69–76° |
| 5d · 2026-10-21 | 77° | 76° | 73° | 74° | 76° | 74° | 73° | 73–77° |
| 4d · 2026-10-22 | 75° | 75° | 72° | 74° | 77° | 76° | 73° | 72–77° |
| 3d · 2026-10-23 | 74° | 75° | 74° | 75° | 76° | 77° | 74° | 74–77° |
| 2d · 2026-10-24 | 75° | 75° | 73° | 76° | 76° | 77° | 73° | 73–77° |
| 1d · 2026-10-25 | 73° | 75° | 71° | 78° | 76° | 75° | 72° | 71–78° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.