Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Tue Oct 20?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Tue Oct 20 high anywhere from 69° to 77°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 72°. The day verified at 73° against the STL observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-05 | — | 76° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 76–79° |
| 14d · 2026-10-06 | 76° | 72° | 69° | — | 77° | — | — | 69–77° |
| 13d · 2026-10-07 | 55° | 69° | 64° | — | 76° | — | — | 55–76° |
| 12d · 2026-10-08 | 64° | 79° | 65° | — | 57° | — | — | 57–79° |
| 11d · 2026-10-09 | 70° | 75° | 78° | — | 69° | — | — | 69–78° |
| 10d · 2026-10-10 | 72° | 67° | 68° | — | 68° | — | — | 67–72° |
| 9d · 2026-10-11 | 75° | 76° | 69° | 77° | 78° | — | — | 69–78° |
| 8d · 2026-10-12 | — | 75° | 73° | 75° | 77° | — | — | 73–77° |
| 7d · 2026-10-13 | 74° | 72° | 73° | 71° | 70° | — | — | 70–74° |
| 6d · 2026-10-14 | 72° | 68° | 67° | 70° | 76° | 70° | 66° | 66–76° |
| 5d · 2026-10-15 | 72° | 70° | 69° | 69° | 74° | 70° | 67° | 67–74° |
| 4d · 2026-10-16 | 72° | 70° | 69° | 69° | 73° | 68° | 68° | 68–73° |
| 3d · 2026-10-17 | 71° | 71° | 68° | 70° | 74° | 64° | 66° | 64–74° |
| 2d · 2026-10-18 | 71° | 71° | 68° | 71° | 74° | 70° | 66° | 66–74° |
| 1d · 2026-10-19 | 72° | 71° | 68° | 73° | 74° | 72° | 67° | 67–74° |
| actual | 73° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.