Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Sun Oct 18?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Sun Oct 18 high anywhere from 55° to 65°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 63°. The day verified at 66° against the STL observations — clear.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.4°. ECMWF ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-03 | — | 73° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 73–78° |
| 14d · 2026-10-04 | 62° | 55° | 65° | — | 57° | — | — | 55–65° |
| 13d · 2026-10-05 | 53° | 68° | 58° | — | 62° | — | — | 53–68° |
| 12d · 2026-10-06 | 71° | 69° | 64° | — | 63° | — | — | 63–71° |
| 11d · 2026-10-07 | 82° | 52° | 58° | — | 63° | — | — | 52–82° |
| 10d · 2026-10-08 | 45° | 76° | 52° | — | 59° | — | — | 45–76° |
| 9d · 2026-10-09 | 58° | 57° | 62° | 56° | 56° | — | — | 56–62° |
| 8d · 2026-10-10 | 62° | 53° | 65° | 58° | 53° | — | — | 53–65° |
| 7d · 2026-10-11 | 68° | 62° | 65° | 64° | 69° | — | — | 62–69° |
| 6d · 2026-10-12 | — | 65° | 66° | 64° | 70° | 68° | 67° | 64–70° |
| 5d · 2026-10-13 | 63° | 64° | 64° | 63° | 71° | 66° | 64° | 63–71° |
| 4d · 2026-10-14 | 64° | 63° | 61° | 64° | 69° | 62° | 62° | 61–69° |
| 3d · 2026-10-15 | 63° | 62° | 62° | 61° | 67° | 62° | 62° | 61–67° |
| 2d · 2026-10-16 | 63° | 62° | 62° | 62° | 66° | 62° | 63° | 62–66° |
| 1d · 2026-10-17 | 63° | 63° | 62° | 66° | 68° | 62° | 63° | 62–68° |
| actual | 66° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.