Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Sat Oct 17?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Sat Oct 17 high anywhere from 59° to 71°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 57°. The day verified at 59° against the STL observations — clear.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. UKMO ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-02 | — | 53° | — | — | 52° | — | — | 52–53° |
| 14d · 2026-10-03 | 59° | 62° | 63° | — | 71° | — | — | 59–71° |
| 13d · 2026-10-04 | 63° | 60° | 64° | — | 62° | — | — | 60–64° |
| 12d · 2026-10-05 | 49° | 64° | 75° | — | 60° | — | — | 49–75° |
| 11d · 2026-10-06 | 51° | 58° | 58° | — | 59° | — | — | 51–59° |
| 10d · 2026-10-07 | 70° | 50° | 56° | — | 61° | — | — | 50–70° |
| 9d · 2026-10-08 | 52° | 75° | 50° | 56° | 57° | — | — | 50–75° |
| 8d · 2026-10-09 | 51° | 56° | 61° | 50° | 51° | — | — | 50–61° |
| 7d · 2026-10-10 | 56° | 50° | 62° | 51° | 46° | — | — | 46–62° |
| 6d · 2026-10-11 | 61° | 55° | 60° | 62° | 58° | 59° | 61° | 55–62° |
| 5d · 2026-10-12 | — | 57° | 60° | 58° | 61° | 62° | 60° | 57–62° |
| 4d · 2026-10-13 | 56° | 58° | 57° | 55° | 63° | 58° | 56° | 55–63° |
| 3d · 2026-10-14 | 57° | 57° | 57° | 56° | 62° | 57° | 58° | 56–62° |
| 2d · 2026-10-15 | 57° | 56° | 57° | 54° | 60° | 57° | 56° | 54–60° |
| 1d · 2026-10-16 | 57° | 56° | 57° | 59° | 61° | 57° | 56° | 56–61° |
| actual | 59° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.