Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Fri Oct 16?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Fri Oct 16 high anywhere from 50° to 67°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 61°. The day verified at 59° against the STL observations, with 0.08 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. ECMWF ran 11° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-01 | — | 77° | — | — | 71° | — | — | 71–77° |
| 14d · 2026-10-02 | 50° | 64° | 67° | — | 63° | — | — | 50–67° |
| 13d · 2026-10-03 | 73° | 59° | 67° | — | 59° | — | — | 59–73° |
| 12d · 2026-10-04 | 76° | 56° | 70° | — | 78° | — | — | 56–78° |
| 11d · 2026-10-05 | 59° | 66° | 87° | — | 76° | — | — | 59–87° |
| 10d · 2026-10-06 | 55° | 55° | 60° | — | 68° | — | — | 55–68° |
| 9d · 2026-10-07 | 78° | 68° | 68° | 57° | 85° | — | — | 57–85° |
| 8d · 2026-10-08 | 59° | 84° | 68° | 64° | 75° | — | — | 59–84° |
| 7d · 2026-10-09 | 63° | 66° | 71° | 59° | 70° | — | — | 59–71° |
| 6d · 2026-10-10 | 61° | 68° | 69° | 73° | 70° | 64° | 66° | 61–73° |
| 5d · 2026-10-11 | 64° | 56° | 73° | 70° | 58° | 60° | 64° | 56–73° |
| 4d · 2026-10-12 | — | 59° | 76° | 68° | 65° | 62° | 64° | 59–76° |
| 3d · 2026-10-13 | 61° | 60° | 66° | 69° | 71° | 62° | 64° | 60–71° |
| 2d · 2026-10-14 | 60° | 61° | 71° | 58° | 62° | 62° | 64° | 58–71° |
| 1d · 2026-10-15 | 61° | 59° | 70° | 59° | 60° | 63° | 61° | 59–70° |
| actual | 59° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.