Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Wed Oct 14?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Wed Oct 14 high anywhere from 57° to 83°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 79° against the STL observations, with 0.88 in of precipitation — showers.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-29 | — | 75° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 75–86° |
| 14d · 2026-09-30 | 61° | 57° | 83° | — | 77° | — | — | 57–83° |
| 13d · 2026-10-01 | 61° | 62° | 89° | — | 81° | — | — | 61–89° |
| 12d · 2026-10-02 | 54° | 54° | 91° | — | 86° | — | — | 54–91° |
| 11d · 2026-10-03 | 75° | 63° | 80° | — | 75° | — | — | 63–80° |
| 10d · 2026-10-04 | 80° | 50° | 85° | — | 73° | — | — | 50–85° |
| 9d · 2026-10-05 | 66° | 78° | 88° | 82° | 74° | — | — | 66–88° |
| 8d · 2026-10-06 | 62° | 66° | 61° | 67° | 94° | — | — | 61–94° |
| 7d · 2026-10-07 | 62° | 62° | 62° | 63° | 76° | — | — | 62–76° |
| 6d · 2026-10-08 | 70° | 87° | 81° | 92° | 83° | 75° | 72° | 70–92° |
| 5d · 2026-10-09 | 80° | 73° | 77° | 80° | 70° | 81° | 75° | 70–81° |
| 4d · 2026-10-10 | 80° | 74° | 82° | 82° | 80° | 78° | 82° | 74–82° |
| 3d · 2026-10-11 | 80° | 76° | 81° | 84° | 83° | 77° | 82° | 76–84° |
| 2d · 2026-10-12 | — | 76° | 87° | 83° | 84° | 80° | 82° | 76–87° |
| 1d · 2026-10-13 | 80° | 77° | 75° | 84° | 82° | 79° | 82° | 75–84° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.