Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Sun Oct 11?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Sun Oct 11 high anywhere from 63° to 77°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 87° against the STL observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. UKMO ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-26 | — | 77° | — | — | 73° | — | — | 73–77° |
| 14d · 2026-09-27 | 63° | 64° | 65° | — | 77° | — | — | 63–77° |
| 13d · 2026-09-28 | 76° | 71° | 76° | — | 81° | — | — | 71–81° |
| 12d · 2026-09-29 | 67° | 84° | 78° | — | 78° | — | — | 67–84° |
| 11d · 2026-09-30 | 70° | 74° | 80° | — | 74° | — | — | 70–80° |
| 10d · 2026-10-01 | 85° | 86° | 85° | — | 89° | — | — | 85–89° |
| 9d · 2026-10-02 | 85° | 87° | 80° | 84° | 81° | — | — | 80–87° |
| 8d · 2026-10-03 | 82° | 86° | 86° | 74° | 77° | — | — | 74–86° |
| 7d · 2026-10-04 | 80° | 86° | 83° | 71° | 80° | — | — | 71–86° |
| 6d · 2026-10-05 | 84° | 79° | 80° | 84° | 81° | 86° | 79° | 79–86° |
| 5d · 2026-10-06 | 86° | 76° | 73° | 71° | 85° | 86° | 73° | 71–86° |
| 4d · 2026-10-07 | 79° | 81° | 67° | 76° | 82° | 81° | 72° | 67–82° |
| 3d · 2026-10-08 | 82° | 80° | 81° | 85° | 84° | 84° | 80° | 80–85° |
| 2d · 2026-10-09 | 83° | 83° | 85° | 85° | 87° | 85° | 83° | 83–87° |
| 1d · 2026-10-10 | 83° | 83° | 85° | 89° | 87° | 86° | 82° | 82–89° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.