Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Sat Oct 10?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Sat Oct 10 high anywhere from 62° to 76°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 79° against the STL observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-25 | — | 67° | — | — | 74° | — | — | 67–74° |
| 14d · 2026-09-26 | 62° | 76° | 67° | — | 69° | — | — | 62–76° |
| 13d · 2026-09-27 | 79° | 66° | 55° | — | 60° | — | — | 55–79° |
| 12d · 2026-09-28 | 86° | 83° | 65° | — | 67° | — | — | 65–86° |
| 11d · 2026-09-29 | 86° | 82° | 76° | — | 72° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 10d · 2026-09-30 | 86° | 82° | 74° | — | 85° | — | — | 74–86° |
| 9d · 2026-10-01 | 87° | 85° | 86° | 88° | 83° | — | — | 83–88° |
| 8d · 2026-10-02 | 84° | 86° | 85° | 88° | 91° | — | — | 84–91° |
| 7d · 2026-10-03 | 89° | 83° | 85° | 86° | 85° | — | — | 83–89° |
| 6d · 2026-10-04 | 88° | 82° | 86° | 82° | 87° | 82° | 73° | 73–88° |
| 5d · 2026-10-05 | 87° | 86° | 87° | 89° | 77° | 91° | 75° | 75–91° |
| 4d · 2026-10-06 | 76° | 81° | 85° | 90° | 90° | 86° | 83° | 76–90° |
| 3d · 2026-10-07 | 76° | 84° | 85° | 78° | 82° | 82° | 80° | 76–85° |
| 2d · 2026-10-08 | 79° | 83° | 80° | 76° | 78° | 79° | 77° | 76–83° |
| 1d · 2026-10-09 | 82° | 81° | 75° | 84° | 82° | 82° | 79° | 75–84° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.