Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Tue Oct 6?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
13 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Tue Oct 6 high anywhere from 66° to 75°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 78° against the STL observations — clear.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. UKMO ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-21 | — | 64° | — | — | 75° | — | — | 64–75° |
| 14d · 2026-09-22 | 73° | 74° | — | — | 71° | — | — | 71–74° |
| 13d · 2026-09-23 | 74° | 75° | 72° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–75° |
| 12d · 2026-09-24 | 72° | 54° | 68° | — | 63° | — | — | 54–72° |
| 11d · 2026-09-25 | 71° | 58° | 74° | — | 67° | — | — | 58–74° |
| 10d · 2026-09-26 | 71° | 60° | 67° | — | 78° | — | — | 60–78° |
| 9d · 2026-09-27 | 68° | 69° | 70° | 79° | 87° | — | — | 68–87° |
| 8d · 2026-09-28 | 64° | 67° | 68° | 71° | 73° | — | — | 64–73° |
| 7d · 2026-09-29 | 70° | 67° | 65° | 73° | 71° | — | — | 65–73° |
| 6d · 2026-09-30 | 73° | 71° | 70° | 72° | 73° | 76° | 73° | 70–76° |
| 5d · 2026-10-01 | 74° | 72° | 75° | 76° | 76° | 74° | 72° | 72–76° |
| 4d · 2026-10-02 | 76° | 75° | 75° | 78° | 79° | 74° | 72° | 72–79° |
| 3d · 2026-10-03 | 78° | 78° | 75° | 76° | 82° | 77° | 73° | 73–82° |
| 2d · 2026-10-04 | 78° | 76° | 76° | 78° | 82° | 79° | 73° | 73–82° |
| 1d · 2026-10-05 | 78° | 76° | 77° | 79° | 81° | 79° | 75° | 75–81° |
| actual | 78° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.