Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Sun Oct 4?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 69° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 82° against the STL observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.5°. ECMWF ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | — | 67° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 67–77° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 69° | 79° | 78° | — | 71° | — | — | 69–79° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 77° | 66° | 69° | — | 76° | — | — | 66–77° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 78° | 61° | 75° | — | 72° | — | — | 61–78° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 70° | 66° | 66° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–70° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 69° | 77° | 69° | — | 90° | — | — | 69–90° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 68° | 79° | 71° | 80° | 80° | — | — | 68–80° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 67° | 70° | 67° | 68° | 74° | — | — | 67–74° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 76° | 66° | 68° | 68° | 77° | — | — | 66–77° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 74° | 76° | 72° | 72° | 73° | 70° | 70° | 70–76° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 78° | 77° | 74° | 77° | 78° | 73° | 72° | 72–78° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 76° | 77° | 72° | 77° | 77° | 75° | 75° | 72–77° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 78° | 78° | 77° | 75° | 81° | 75° | 76° | 75–81° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 79° | 79° | 76° | 76° | 80° | 76° | 77° | 76–80° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 80° | 79° | 76° | 80° | 80° | 78° | 76° | 76–80° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.