Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Sat Oct 3?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Sat Oct 3 high anywhere from 60° to 80°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 73°. The day verified at 73° against the STL observations — cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-18 | — | 82° | — | — | 90° | — | — | 82–90° |
| 14d · 2026-09-19 | 80° | 60° | 73° | — | 70° | — | — | 60–80° |
| 13d · 2026-09-20 | 61° | 80° | 74° | — | 90° | — | — | 61–90° |
| 12d · 2026-09-21 | 74° | 78° | 76° | — | 82° | — | — | 74–82° |
| 11d · 2026-09-22 | 72° | 71° | 77° | — | 90° | — | — | 71–90° |
| 10d · 2026-09-23 | 74° | 69° | 77° | — | 77° | — | — | 69–77° |
| 9d · 2026-09-24 | 71° | 69° | 78° | 73° | 80° | — | — | 69–80° |
| 8d · 2026-09-25 | 68° | 71° | 76° | 80° | 94° | — | — | 68–94° |
| 7d · 2026-09-26 | 62° | 72° | 74° | 66° | 76° | — | — | 62–76° |
| 6d · 2026-09-27 | 72° | 62° | 72° | 67° | 74° | 64° | 69° | 62–74° |
| 5d · 2026-09-28 | 72° | 69° | 72° | 69° | 70° | 68° | 68° | 68–72° |
| 4d · 2026-09-29 | 73° | 73° | 71° | 75° | 78° | 73° | 77° | 71–78° |
| 3d · 2026-09-30 | 71° | 71° | 70° | 72° | 76° | 75° | 73° | 70–76° |
| 2d · 2026-10-01 | 73° | 70° | 72° | 71° | 78° | 73° | 74° | 70–78° |
| 1d · 2026-10-02 | 73° | 73° | 72° | 76° | 78° | 74° | 73° | 72–78° |
| actual | 73° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.