Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Fri Oct 2?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Fri Oct 2 high anywhere from 81° to 86°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 72°. The day verified at 74° against the STL observations — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-17 | — | 82° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 78–82° |
| 14d · 2026-09-18 | 84° | 81° | 82° | — | 86° | — | — | 81–86° |
| 13d · 2026-09-19 | 71° | 60° | 80° | — | 56° | — | — | 56–80° |
| 12d · 2026-09-20 | 62° | 80° | 70° | — | 95° | — | — | 62–95° |
| 11d · 2026-09-21 | 76° | 71° | 72° | — | 86° | — | — | 71–86° |
| 10d · 2026-09-22 | 76° | 66° | 84° | — | 88° | — | — | 66–88° |
| 9d · 2026-09-23 | 72° | 76° | 73° | 74° | 76° | — | — | 72–76° |
| 8d · 2026-09-24 | 78° | 86° | 77° | 79° | 78° | — | — | 77–86° |
| 7d · 2026-09-25 | 64° | 80° | 80° | 79° | 88° | — | — | 64–88° |
| 6d · 2026-09-26 | 67° | 85° | 74° | 72° | 88° | 72° | 71° | 67–88° |
| 5d · 2026-09-27 | 75° | 66° | 70° | 73° | 68° | 67° | 72° | 66–75° |
| 4d · 2026-09-28 | 73° | 71° | 74° | 80° | 70° | 71° | 72° | 70–80° |
| 3d · 2026-09-29 | 72° | 72° | 73° | 72° | 74° | 73° | 73° | 72–74° |
| 2d · 2026-09-30 | 71° | 68° | 69° | 73° | 73° | 70° | 74° | 68–74° |
| 1d · 2026-10-01 | 71° | 69° | 72° | 74° | 75° | 70° | 74° | 69–75° |
| actual | 74° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.