Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Wed Sep 30?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Wed Sep 30 high anywhere from 68° to 92°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 92° against the STL observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-15 | — | 73° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 73–77° |
| 14d · 2026-09-16 | 74° | 68° | 83° | — | 92° | — | — | 68–92° |
| 13d · 2026-09-17 | 77° | 83° | 70° | — | 76° | — | — | 70–83° |
| 12d · 2026-09-18 | 81° | 74° | 67° | — | 77° | — | — | 67–81° |
| 11d · 2026-09-19 | 67° | 70° | 77° | — | 68° | — | — | 67–77° |
| 10d · 2026-09-20 | 65° | 70° | 66° | — | 91° | — | — | 65–91° |
| 9d · 2026-09-21 | 67° | 79° | 73° | 69° | 76° | — | — | 67–79° |
| 8d · 2026-09-22 | 70° | 70° | 84° | 79° | 92° | — | — | 70–92° |
| 7d · 2026-09-23 | 73° | 75° | 76° | 70° | 69° | — | — | 69–76° |
| 6d · 2026-09-24 | 83° | 80° | 76° | 70° | 79° | 91° | 74° | 70–91° |
| 5d · 2026-09-25 | 80° | 76° | 70° | 83° | 79° | 90° | 84° | 70–90° |
| 4d · 2026-09-26 | 89° | 90° | 77° | 83° | 93° | 86° | 83° | 77–93° |
| 3d · 2026-09-27 | 88° | 88° | 88° | 86° | 92° | 91° | 85° | 85–92° |
| 2d · 2026-09-28 | 88° | 88° | 88° | 88° | 92° | 92° | 86° | 86–92° |
| 1d · 2026-09-29 | 88° | 90° | 88° | 92° | 91° | 92° | 88° | 88–92° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.