Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Sat Sep 26?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Sat Sep 26 high anywhere from 72° to 92°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 70°. The day verified at 69° against the STL observations, with 0.06 in of precipitation — showers.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 9° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-11 | — | 78° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 78–84° |
| 14d · 2026-09-12 | 92° | 72° | 74° | — | 87° | — | — | 72–92° |
| 13d · 2026-09-13 | 90° | 84° | 77° | — | 72° | — | — | 72–90° |
| 12d · 2026-09-14 | 65° | 87° | 82° | — | 84° | — | — | 65–87° |
| 11d · 2026-09-15 | 84° | 91° | 74° | — | 100° | — | — | 74–100° |
| 10d · 2026-09-16 | 68° | 78° | 73° | — | 71° | — | — | 68–78° |
| 9d · 2026-09-17 | 70° | 76° | 67° | 79° | 78° | — | — | 67–79° |
| 8d · 2026-09-18 | 73° | 72° | 68° | 76° | 82° | — | — | 68–82° |
| 7d · 2026-09-19 | 74° | 64° | 74° | 76° | 65° | — | — | 64–76° |
| 6d · 2026-09-20 | 72° | 64° | 72° | 72° | 72° | 76° | 74° | 64–76° |
| 5d · 2026-09-21 | 65° | 68° | 71° | 76° | 78° | 74° | 79° | 65–79° |
| 4d · 2026-09-22 | 69° | 66° | 73° | 74° | 69° | 69° | 74° | 66–74° |
| 3d · 2026-09-23 | 67° | 64° | 71° | 73° | 65° | 65° | 70° | 64–73° |
| 2d · 2026-09-24 | 70° | 68° | 72° | 71° | 74° | 66° | 72° | 66–74° |
| 1d · 2026-09-25 | 72° | 71° | 70° | 78° | 67° | 69° | 70° | 67–78° |
| actual | 69° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.