Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Thu Sep 24?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Thu Sep 24 high anywhere from 63° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 72°. The day verified at 70° against the STL observations — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.8°. GEM ran 9° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-09 | — | 72° | — | — | 71° | — | — | 71–72° |
| 14d · 2026-09-10 | 72° | 63° | 70° | — | 88° | — | — | 63–88° |
| 13d · 2026-09-11 | 82° | 69° | 66° | — | 87° | — | — | 66–87° |
| 12d · 2026-09-12 | 79° | 74° | 78° | — | 88° | — | — | 74–88° |
| 11d · 2026-09-13 | 82° | 76° | 74° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–82° |
| 10d · 2026-09-14 | 70° | 84° | 79° | — | 78° | — | — | 70–84° |
| 9d · 2026-09-15 | 84° | 84° | 84° | 83° | 82° | — | — | 82–84° |
| 8d · 2026-09-16 | 69° | 71° | 70° | 79° | 93° | — | — | 69–93° |
| 7d · 2026-09-17 | 66° | 68° | 66° | 74° | 75° | — | — | 66–75° |
| 6d · 2026-09-18 | 66° | 70° | 68° | 73° | 77° | 72° | 70° | 66–77° |
| 5d · 2026-09-19 | 69° | 68° | 73° | 71° | 75° | 70° | 73° | 68–75° |
| 4d · 2026-09-20 | 67° | 68° | 72° | 72° | 78° | 74° | 71° | 67–78° |
| 3d · 2026-09-21 | 67° | 70° | 71° | 77° | 78° | 72° | 72° | 67–78° |
| 2d · 2026-09-22 | 69° | 70° | 73° | 76° | 78° | 76° | 71° | 69–78° |
| 1d · 2026-09-23 | 69° | 71° | 72° | 79° | 79° | 76° | 71° | 69–79° |
| actual | 70° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.