Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Wed Sep 23?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Wed Sep 23 high anywhere from 68° to 93°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 71°. The day verified at 70° against the STL observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.7°. GFS ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-08 | — | 79° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 79–79° |
| 14d · 2026-09-09 | 79° | 71° | 68° | — | 93° | — | — | 68–93° |
| 13d · 2026-09-10 | 66° | 69° | 67° | — | 82° | — | — | 66–82° |
| 12d · 2026-09-11 | 79° | 69° | 69° | — | 86° | — | — | 69–86° |
| 11d · 2026-09-12 | 80° | 74° | 75° | — | 87° | — | — | 74–87° |
| 10d · 2026-09-13 | 75° | 72° | 78° | — | 84° | — | — | 72–84° |
| 9d · 2026-09-14 | 68° | 85° | 73° | 71° | 75° | — | — | 68–85° |
| 8d · 2026-09-15 | 82° | 86° | 79° | 76° | 91° | — | — | 76–91° |
| 7d · 2026-09-16 | 66° | 68° | 70° | 86° | 89° | — | — | 66–89° |
| 6d · 2026-09-17 | 65° | 69° | 66° | 72° | 74° | 70° | 70° | 65–74° |
| 5d · 2026-09-18 | 64° | 66° | 69° | 73° | 78° | 72° | 74° | 64–78° |
| 4d · 2026-09-19 | 65° | 65° | 70° | 70° | 77° | 72° | 74° | 65–77° |
| 3d · 2026-09-20 | 65° | 68° | 69° | 74° | 78° | 72° | 74° | 65–78° |
| 2d · 2026-09-21 | 65° | 70° | 70° | 72° | 76° | 74° | 70° | 65–76° |
| 1d · 2026-09-22 | 66° | 69° | 71° | 75° | 76° | 75° | 71° | 66–76° |
| actual | 70° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.