Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Wed Sep 16?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
13 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Wed Sep 16 high anywhere from 82° to 85°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 96°. The day verified at 94° against the STL observations — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.5°. GEM ran 5° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-01 | — | 91° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 80–91° |
| 14d · 2026-09-02 | 78° | 69° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 69–91° |
| 13d · 2026-09-03 | 85° | 82° | 83° | — | 85° | — | — | 82–85° |
| 12d · 2026-09-04 | 87° | 68° | 95° | — | 104° | — | — | 68–104° |
| 11d · 2026-09-05 | 93° | 77° | 88° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–93° |
| 10d · 2026-09-06 | 96° | 79° | 72° | — | 73° | — | — | 72–96° |
| 9d · 2026-09-07 | 74° | 68° | 75° | — | 72° | — | — | 68–75° |
| 8d · 2026-09-08 | 80° | 94° | 87° | 90° | 88° | — | — | 80–94° |
| 7d · 2026-09-09 | 87° | 96° | 81° | 96° | 83° | — | — | 81–96° |
| 6d · 2026-09-10 | 85° | 75° | 88° | 94° | 97° | 95° | — | 75–97° |
| 5d · 2026-09-11 | 90° | 92° | 96° | 95° | 102° | 96° | 93° | 90–102° |
| 4d · 2026-09-12 | 87° | 87° | 98° | 95° | 99° | 97° | 96° | 87–99° |
| 3d · 2026-09-13 | 90° | 91° | 99° | 88° | 96° | 99° | 95° | 88–99° |
| 2d · 2026-09-14 | 90° | 89° | 97° | 93° | 94° | 96° | 93° | 89–97° |
| 1d · 2026-09-15 | 91° | 90° | 99° | 98° | 97° | 97° | 93° | 90–99° |
| 0d · 2026-09-16 | 90° | 90° | 98° | 99° | 96° | 96° | 94° | 90–99° |
| actual | 94° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.