Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Tue Sep 15?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
13 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Tue Sep 15 high anywhere from 81° to 96°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 99°. The day verified at 98° against the STL observations — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. ICON ran 2° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-31 | — | 69° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 69–81° |
| 14d · 2026-09-01 | 87° | 94° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 79–94° |
| 13d · 2026-09-02 | 81° | 92° | 93° | — | 96° | — | — | 81–96° |
| 12d · 2026-09-03 | 85° | 79° | 82° | — | 86° | — | — | 79–86° |
| 11d · 2026-09-04 | 84° | 73° | 102° | — | 108° | — | — | 73–108° |
| 10d · 2026-09-05 | 94° | 85° | 83° | — | 96° | — | — | 83–96° |
| 9d · 2026-09-06 | 94° | 96° | 76° | — | 72° | — | — | 72–96° |
| 8d · 2026-09-07 | 87° | 81° | 83° | 86° | 70° | — | — | 70–87° |
| 7d · 2026-09-08 | 91° | 93° | 90° | 81° | 84° | — | — | 81–93° |
| 6d · 2026-09-09 | 94° | 93° | 83° | 95° | 89° | 85° | — | 83–95° |
| 5d · 2026-09-10 | 90° | 91° | 94° | 92° | 97° | 97° | 94° | 90–97° |
| 4d · 2026-09-11 | 92° | 96° | 96° | 94° | 102° | 99° | 96° | 92–102° |
| 3d · 2026-09-12 | 94° | 96° | 96° | 96° | 102° | 98° | 97° | 94–102° |
| 2d · 2026-09-13 | 94° | 95° | 101° | 97° | 101° | 97° | 95° | 94–101° |
| 1d · 2026-09-14 | 96° | 98° | 99° | 100° | 102° | 98° | 96° | 96–102° |
| 0d · 2026-09-15 | 96° | 99° | 99° | 100° | 100° | 100° | 97° | 96–100° |
| actual | 98° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.