Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Mon Sep 14?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
13 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Mon Sep 14 high anywhere from 84° to 94°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 88° against the STL observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°. UKMO ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-30 | — | 80° | — | — | 94° | — | — | 80–94° |
| 14d · 2026-08-31 | 70° | 76° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 70–76° |
| 13d · 2026-09-01 | 91° | 94° | 84° | — | 94° | — | — | 84–94° |
| 12d · 2026-09-02 | 96° | 75° | 93° | — | 102° | — | — | 75–102° |
| 11d · 2026-09-03 | 83° | 86° | 78° | — | 85° | — | — | 78–86° |
| 10d · 2026-09-04 | 81° | 62° | 103° | — | 101° | — | — | 62–103° |
| 9d · 2026-09-05 | 90° | 87° | 77° | — | 99° | — | — | 77–99° |
| 8d · 2026-09-06 | 84° | 94° | 94° | 95° | 70° | — | — | 70–95° |
| 7d · 2026-09-07 | 90° | 96° | 91° | 92° | 104° | — | — | 90–104° |
| 6d · 2026-09-08 | 88° | 78° | 93° | 74° | 99° | 92° | — | 74–99° |
| 5d · 2026-09-09 | 87° | 88° | 94° | 89° | 101° | 97° | 95° | 87–101° |
| 4d · 2026-09-10 | 87° | 91° | 92° | 78° | 102° | 94° | 93° | 78–102° |
| 3d · 2026-09-11 | 84° | 88° | 88° | 83° | 83° | 90° | 95° | 83–95° |
| 2d · 2026-09-12 | 84° | 81° | 84° | 84° | 86° | 84° | 86° | 81–86° |
| 1d · 2026-09-13 | 85° | 81° | 92° | 84° | 87° | 85° | 84° | 81–92° |
| 0d · 2026-09-14 | 85° | 84° | 89° | 90° | 91° | 88° | 84° | 84–91° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.