Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Fri Sep 11?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
13 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Fri Sep 11 high anywhere from 79° to 99°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 83° against the STL observations — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.5°. GEM ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-27 | — | 99° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 86–99° |
| 14d · 2026-08-28 | 95° | 86° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 86–95° |
| 13d · 2026-08-29 | 79° | 91° | 99° | — | 90° | — | — | 79–99° |
| 12d · 2026-08-30 | 82° | 91° | 70° | — | 80° | — | — | 70–91° |
| 11d · 2026-08-31 | 88° | 95° | 84° | — | 103° | — | — | 84–103° |
| 10d · 2026-09-01 | 95° | 98° | 100° | — | 104° | — | — | 95–104° |
| 9d · 2026-09-02 | 94° | 94° | 82° | — | 92° | — | — | 82–94° |
| 8d · 2026-09-03 | 81° | 96° | 84° | 97° | 96° | — | — | 81–97° |
| 7d · 2026-09-04 | 77° | 89° | 83° | 97° | 104° | — | — | 77–104° |
| 6d · 2026-09-05 | 85° | 85° | 84° | 83° | 87° | 82° | — | 82–87° |
| 5d · 2026-09-06 | 83° | 80° | 84° | 78° | 89° | 80° | 82° | 78–89° |
| 4d · 2026-09-07 | 84° | 84° | 84° | 82° | 91° | 79° | 84° | 79–91° |
| 3d · 2026-09-08 | 81° | 80° | 83° | 80° | 88° | 84° | 85° | 80–88° |
| 2d · 2026-09-09 | 79° | 80° | 84° | 80° | 85° | 83° | 85° | 79–85° |
| 1d · 2026-09-10 | 80° | 77° | 82° | 78° | 83° | 80° | 85° | 77–85° |
| 0d · 2026-09-11 | 80° | 82° | 81° | 87° | 87° | 80° | 82° | 80–87° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.