Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Thu Sep 10?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 84° to 110°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 76°. The day verified at 80° against the STL observations, with 0.15 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.4°. GFS ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-26 | — | 92° | — | — | 107° | — | — | 92–107° |
| 14d · 2026-08-27 | 95° | 94° | 84° | — | 110° | — | — | 84–110° |
| 13d · 2026-08-28 | 93° | 87° | 97° | — | 92° | — | — | 87–97° |
| 12d · 2026-08-29 | 97° | 90° | 93° | — | 90° | — | — | 90–97° |
| 11d · 2026-08-30 | 93° | 97° | 102° | — | 97° | — | — | 93–102° |
| 10d · 2026-08-31 | 91° | 93° | 92° | — | 93° | — | — | 91–93° |
| 9d · 2026-09-01 | 95° | 87° | 90° | 94° | 83° | — | — | 83–95° |
| 8d · 2026-09-02 | 96° | 93° | 86° | 97° | 106° | — | — | 86–106° |
| 7d · 2026-09-03 | 82° | 87° | 90° | 95° | 111° | — | — | 82–111° |
| 6d · 2026-09-04 | 77° | 73° | 81° | 84° | 88° | 86° | 90° | 73–90° |
| 5d · 2026-09-05 | 79° | 77° | 82° | 86° | 91° | 84° | 87° | 77–91° |
| 4d · 2026-09-06 | 79° | 80° | 82° | 81° | 87° | 80° | 84° | 79–87° |
| 3d · 2026-09-07 | 76° | 77° | 81° | 77° | 80° | 83° | 89° | 76–89° |
| 2d · 2026-09-08 | 77° | 74° | 79° | 75° | 78° | 79° | 86° | 74–86° |
| 1d · 2026-09-09 | 76° | 74° | 77° | 81° | 73° | 76° | 82° | 73–82° |
| actual | 80° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.