Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Wed Sep 9?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
14 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 82° to 93°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 96°. The day verified at 93° against the STL observations, with 0.1 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. GFS ran 12° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-25 | — | 87° | — | — | 95° | — | — | 87–95° |
| 14d · 2026-08-26 | 92° | 82° | 85° | — | 93° | — | — | 82–93° |
| 13d · 2026-08-27 | 93° | 81° | 101° | — | 109° | — | — | 81–109° |
| 12d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 87° | 98° | — | 106° | — | — | 86–106° |
| 11d · 2026-08-29 | 92° | 88° | 106° | — | 100° | — | — | 88–106° |
| 10d · 2026-08-30 | 91° | 94° | 104° | — | 87° | — | — | 87–104° |
| 9d · 2026-08-31 | 91° | 92° | 89° | 91° | 106° | — | — | 89–106° |
| 8d · 2026-09-01 | 96° | 98° | 98° | 96° | 99° | — | — | 96–99° |
| 7d · 2026-09-02 | 98° | 99° | 97° | 95° | 106° | — | — | 95–106° |
| 6d · 2026-09-03 | 95° | 99° | 101° | 96° | 110° | 91° | 94° | 91–110° |
| 5d · 2026-09-04 | 93° | 93° | 101° | 95° | 102° | 101° | 101° | 93–102° |
| 4d · 2026-09-05 | 91° | 87° | 99° | 93° | 98° | 96° | 97° | 87–99° |
| 3d · 2026-09-06 | 93° | 91° | 98° | 92° | 106° | 94° | 94° | 91–106° |
| 2d · 2026-09-07 | 92° | 93° | 93° | 91° | 103° | 95° | 97° | 91–103° |
| 1d · 2026-09-08 | 92° | 96° | 96° | 96° | 105° | 96° | 98° | 92–105° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.