Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Wed Sep 9?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
13 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 67° to 99°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 93° against the STL observations, with 0.1 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.6°. GFS ran 10° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-25 | — | 88° | — | — | 95° | — | — | 88–95° |
| 14d · 2026-08-26 | 81° | 78° | — | — | 72° | — | — | 72–81° |
| 13d · 2026-08-27 | 67° | 82° | 94° | — | 99° | — | — | 67–99° |
| 12d · 2026-08-28 | 91° | 86° | 84° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–91° |
| 11d · 2026-08-29 | 90° | 101° | 97° | — | 91° | — | — | 90–101° |
| 10d · 2026-08-30 | 90° | 89° | 98° | — | 92° | — | — | 89–98° |
| 9d · 2026-08-31 | 91° | 88° | 90° | — | 103° | — | — | 88–103° |
| 8d · 2026-09-01 | 96° | 102° | 102° | 98° | 105° | — | — | 96–105° |
| 7d · 2026-09-02 | 95° | 97° | 98° | 96° | 105° | — | — | 95–105° |
| 6d · 2026-09-03 | 96° | 100° | 101° | 95° | 109° | 89° | — | 89–109° |
| 5d · 2026-09-04 | 95° | 99° | 101° | 96° | 110° | 91° | 94° | 91–110° |
| 4d · 2026-09-05 | 90° | 90° | 102° | 94° | 103° | 100° | 100° | 90–103° |
| 3d · 2026-09-06 | 92° | 87° | 98° | 94° | 103° | 98° | 95° | 87–103° |
| 2d · 2026-09-07 | 92° | 89° | 98° | 91° | 102° | 94° | 96° | 89–102° |
| 1d · 2026-09-08 | 93° | 95° | 97° | 96° | 102° | 97° | 97° | 93–102° |
| 0d · 2026-09-09 | 91° | 95° | 97° | 97° | 103° | 96° | 97° | 91–103° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.