Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Sun Sep 6?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
12 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 79° to 94°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 90° against the STL observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-08-25 | 80° | 81° | 79° | — | 94° | — | — | 79–94° |
| 11d · 2026-08-26 | 77° | 102° | 94° | — | 88° | — | — | 77–102° |
| 10d · 2026-08-27 | 95° | 74° | 94° | — | 107° | — | — | 74–107° |
| 9d · 2026-08-28 | 81° | 88° | 95° | 100° | 99° | — | — | 81–100° |
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 89° | 80° | 101° | 90° | 102° | — | — | 80–102° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 86° | 95° | 93° | 89° | 102° | — | — | 86–102° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 87° | 91° | 93° | 92° | 93° | 94° | 95° | 87–95° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 88° | 92° | 94° | 96° | 96° | 92° | 97° | 88–97° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 90° | 95° | 93° | 89° | 99° | 94° | 97° | 89–99° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 86° | 91° | 93° | 94° | 96° | 91° | 91° | 86–96° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 87° | 91° | 90° | 91° | 94° | 89° | 92° | 87–94° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 87° | 91° | 90° | 96° | 93° | 89° | 90° | 87–96° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.