Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Sat Sep 5?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
11 days out, 4 models put St. Louis's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 89° to 98°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 99°. The day verified at 101° against the STL observations — cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-25 | 89° | 93° | 89° | — | 98° | — | — | 89–98° |
| 10d · 2026-08-26 | 92° | 99° | 92° | — | 94° | — | — | 92–99° |
| 9d · 2026-08-27 | 88° | 93° | 90° | 86° | 109° | — | — | 86–109° |
| 8d · 2026-08-28 | 84° | 96° | 92° | 94° | 104° | — | — | 84–104° |
| 7d · 2026-08-29 | 91° | 82° | 100° | 92° | 103° | — | — | 82–103° |
| 6d · 2026-08-30 | 89° | 95° | 92° | 91° | 104° | 96° | 93° | 89–104° |
| 5d · 2026-08-31 | 91° | 96° | 98° | 98° | 104° | 101° | 97° | 91–104° |
| 4d · 2026-09-01 | 94° | 99° | 94° | 99° | 105° | 100° | 96° | 94–105° |
| 3d · 2026-09-02 | 96° | 100° | 96° | 100° | 105° | 100° | 96° | 96–105° |
| 2d · 2026-09-03 | 97° | 100° | 98° | 100° | 104° | 101° | 98° | 97–104° |
| 1d · 2026-09-04 | 97° | 101° | 96° | 104° | 106° | 98° | 99° | 96–106° |
| actual | 101° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.