Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Sat Aug 29?
St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations
4 days out, 7 models put St. Louis's Sat Aug 29 high anywhere from 82° to 94°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 88° against the STL observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-08-25 | 82° | 86° | 88° | 86° | 94° | 88° | 86° | 82–94° |
| 3d · 2026-08-26 | 85° | 86° | 90° | 87° | 92° | 89° | 87° | 85–92° |
| 2d · 2026-08-27 | 85° | 85° | 89° | 87° | 90° | 87° | 87° | 85–90° |
| 1d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 87° | 87° | 91° | 94° | 89° | 88° | 86–94° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.