Was the forecast right for Seattle on Mon Oct 26?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Mon Oct 26 high anywhere from 52° to 59°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 55°. The day verified at 58° against the SEA observations, with 0.03 in of precipitation — showers.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-11 | — | 58° | — | — | 60° | — | — | 58–60° |
| 14d · 2026-10-12 | — | 65° | 61° | — | 59° | — | — | 59–65° |
| 13d · 2026-10-13 | 54° | 53° | 59° | — | 52° | — | — | 52–59° |
| 12d · 2026-10-14 | 56° | 58° | 59° | — | 60° | — | — | 56–60° |
| 11d · 2026-10-15 | 52° | 48° | 56° | — | 52° | — | — | 48–56° |
| 10d · 2026-10-16 | 52° | 57° | 54° | — | 51° | — | — | 51–57° |
| 9d · 2026-10-17 | 51° | 52° | 58° | 57° | 58° | — | — | 51–58° |
| 8d · 2026-10-18 | 51° | 50° | 54° | 52° | 56° | — | — | 50–56° |
| 7d · 2026-10-19 | 53° | 50° | 54° | 49° | 61° | 53° | — | 49–61° |
| 6d · 2026-10-20 | 53° | 51° | 63° | 51° | 55° | 63° | 53° | 51–63° |
| 5d · 2026-10-21 | 52° | 54° | 58° | 54° | 60° | 54° | 61° | 52–61° |
| 4d · 2026-10-22 | 52° | 54° | 52° | 57° | 59° | 57° | 56° | 52–59° |
| 3d · 2026-10-23 | 54° | 53° | 56° | 58° | 57° | 55° | 53° | 53–58° |
| 2d · 2026-10-24 | 54° | 51° | 57° | 57° | 54° | 54° | 57° | 51–57° |
| 1d · 2026-10-25 | 54° | 51° | 56° | 58° | 55° | 55° | 54° | 51–58° |
| actual | 58° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.