Was the forecast right for Seattle on Thu Oct 22?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Thu Oct 22 high anywhere from 55° to 64°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 57°. The day verified at 60° against the SEA observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. AIFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-07 | — | 53° | — | — | 49° | — | — | 49–53° |
| 14d · 2026-10-08 | 59° | 55° | 62° | — | 64° | — | — | 55–64° |
| 13d · 2026-10-09 | 58° | 55° | 51° | — | 58° | — | — | 51–58° |
| 12d · 2026-10-10 | 57° | 62° | 60° | — | 54° | — | — | 54–62° |
| 11d · 2026-10-11 | 53° | 57° | 55° | — | 62° | — | — | 53–62° |
| 10d · 2026-10-12 | — | 60° | 54° | — | 56° | — | — | 54–60° |
| 9d · 2026-10-13 | 56° | 61° | 52° | 60° | 62° | — | — | 52–62° |
| 8d · 2026-10-14 | 56° | 53° | 54° | 55° | 54° | — | — | 53–56° |
| 7d · 2026-10-15 | 54° | 53° | 56° | 52° | 57° | 53° | — | 52–57° |
| 6d · 2026-10-16 | 56° | 53° | 55° | 59° | 59° | 52° | 56° | 52–59° |
| 5d · 2026-10-17 | 55° | 56° | 58° | 58° | 60° | 58° | 58° | 55–60° |
| 4d · 2026-10-18 | 55° | 54° | 58° | 57° | 60° | 54° | 55° | 54–60° |
| 3d · 2026-10-19 | 55° | 55° | 58° | 58° | 60° | 54° | 57° | 54–60° |
| 2d · 2026-10-20 | 55° | 56° | 57° | 58° | 62° | 58° | 56° | 55–62° |
| 1d · 2026-10-21 | 54° | 55° | 57° | 58° | 61° | 57° | 57° | 54–61° |
| actual | 60° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.