Was the forecast right for Seattle on Wed Oct 21?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Wed Oct 21 high anywhere from 52° to 57°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 64°. The day verified at 64° against the SEA observations — fog.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-06 | — | 56° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 56–70° |
| 14d · 2026-10-07 | 57° | 52° | 57° | — | 56° | — | — | 52–57° |
| 13d · 2026-10-08 | 58° | 55° | 64° | — | 61° | — | — | 55–64° |
| 12d · 2026-10-09 | 55° | 54° | 51° | — | 57° | — | — | 51–57° |
| 11d · 2026-10-10 | 54° | 56° | 56° | — | 57° | — | — | 54–57° |
| 10d · 2026-10-11 | 55° | 56° | 55° | — | 59° | — | — | 55–59° |
| 9d · 2026-10-12 | — | 56° | 54° | 63° | 53° | — | — | 53–63° |
| 8d · 2026-10-13 | 58° | 58° | 54° | 60° | 65° | — | — | 54–65° |
| 7d · 2026-10-14 | 58° | 56° | 58° | 58° | 61° | 57° | — | 56–61° |
| 6d · 2026-10-15 | 59° | 58° | 58° | 60° | 61° | 61° | 57° | 57–61° |
| 5d · 2026-10-16 | 60° | 58° | 62° | 62° | 64° | 62° | 60° | 58–64° |
| 4d · 2026-10-17 | 61° | 61° | 63° | 63° | 65° | 63° | 62° | 61–65° |
| 3d · 2026-10-18 | 61° | 63° | 63° | 66° | 67° | 64° | 63° | 61–67° |
| 2d · 2026-10-19 | 62° | 64° | 63° | 66° | 67° | 64° | 63° | 62–67° |
| 1d · 2026-10-20 | 62° | 64° | 64° | 66° | 68° | 64° | 63° | 62–68° |
| actual | 64° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.