Was the forecast right for Seattle on Sun Oct 11?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Sun Oct 11 high anywhere from 63° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 58°. The day verified at 60° against the SEA observations — partly cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-26 | — | 72° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 72–80° |
| 14d · 2026-09-27 | 64° | 64° | 63° | — | 79° | — | — | 63–79° |
| 13d · 2026-09-28 | 65° | 70° | 61° | — | 80° | — | — | 61–80° |
| 12d · 2026-09-29 | 66° | 64° | 62° | — | 80° | — | — | 62–80° |
| 11d · 2026-09-30 | 66° | 57° | 59° | — | 68° | — | — | 57–68° |
| 10d · 2026-10-01 | 60° | 61° | 57° | — | 57° | — | — | 57–61° |
| 9d · 2026-10-02 | 60° | 60° | 55° | 61° | 63° | — | — | 55–63° |
| 8d · 2026-10-03 | 57° | 56° | 58° | 55° | 59° | — | — | 55–59° |
| 7d · 2026-10-04 | 58° | 58° | 54° | 57° | 60° | 61° | — | 54–61° |
| 6d · 2026-10-05 | 59° | 57° | 57° | 56° | 58° | 60° | 66° | 56–66° |
| 5d · 2026-10-06 | 62° | 57° | 61° | 58° | 62° | 60° | 60° | 57–62° |
| 4d · 2026-10-07 | 60° | 56° | 58° | 58° | 61° | 60° | 62° | 56–62° |
| 3d · 2026-10-08 | 59° | 56° | 58° | 57° | 60° | 60° | 62° | 56–62° |
| 2d · 2026-10-09 | 59° | 56° | 58° | 60° | 60° | 59° | 61° | 56–61° |
| 1d · 2026-10-10 | 58° | 57° | 58° | 60° | 59° | 58° | 61° | 57–61° |
| actual | 60° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.