Was the forecast right for Seattle on Sun Oct 4?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 54° to 64°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 71°. The day verified at 69° against the SEA observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 7° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | — | 69° | — | — | 62° | — | — | 62–69° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 63° | 58° | 54° | — | 64° | — | — | 54–64° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 70° | 73° | 64° | — | 61° | — | — | 61–73° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 58° | 70° | 57° | — | 58° | — | — | 57–70° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 64° | 69° | 64° | — | 64° | — | — | 64–69° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 70° | 71° | 60° | — | 67° | — | — | 60–71° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 68° | 66° | 59° | 70° | 72° | — | — | 59–72° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 68° | 74° | 64° | 72° | 76° | — | — | 64–76° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 69° | 68° | 60° | 69° | 72° | 70° | — | 60–72° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 68° | 72° | 70° | 72° | 73° | 69° | 71° | 68–73° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 68° | 72° | 69° | 73° | 74° | 70° | 69° | 68–74° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 68° | 72° | 68° | 73° | 76° | 69° | 70° | 68–76° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 69° | 72° | 68° | 74° | 76° | 71° | 71° | 68–76° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 68° | 72° | 68° | 75° | 76° | 69° | 71° | 68–76° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 67° | 71° | 68° | 74° | 76° | 69° | 71° | 67–76° |
| actual | 69° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.