Was the forecast right for Seattle on Tue Sep 29?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Tue Sep 29 high anywhere from 60° to 68°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 61°. The day verified at 63° against the SEA observations, with 0.01 in of precipitation — showers.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIGFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-14 | — | 67° | — | — | 68° | — | — | 67–68° |
| 14d · 2026-09-15 | 61° | 60° | 61° | — | 68° | — | — | 60–68° |
| 13d · 2026-09-16 | 65° | 59° | 67° | — | 71° | — | — | 59–71° |
| 12d · 2026-09-17 | 60° | 56° | 60° | — | 58° | — | — | 56–60° |
| 11d · 2026-09-18 | 68° | 58° | 68° | — | 69° | — | — | 58–69° |
| 10d · 2026-09-19 | 67° | 65° | 68° | — | 73° | — | — | 65–73° |
| 9d · 2026-09-20 | 60° | 73° | 69° | 67° | 71° | — | — | 60–73° |
| 8d · 2026-09-21 | 60° | 61° | 58° | 57° | 65° | — | — | 57–65° |
| 7d · 2026-09-22 | 58° | 58° | 57° | 64° | 66° | 68° | — | 57–68° |
| 6d · 2026-09-23 | 64° | 59° | 61° | 68° | 56° | 63° | 70° | 56–70° |
| 5d · 2026-09-24 | 64° | 62° | 60° | 65° | 57° | 64° | 68° | 57–68° |
| 4d · 2026-09-25 | 61° | 58° | 62° | 59° | 62° | 60° | 66° | 58–66° |
| 3d · 2026-09-26 | 60° | 56° | 63° | 58° | 58° | 59° | 61° | 56–63° |
| 2d · 2026-09-27 | 60° | 57° | 63° | 64° | 58° | 61° | 65° | 57–65° |
| 1d · 2026-09-28 | 60° | 58° | 63° | 62° | 58° | 61° | 66° | 58–66° |
| actual | 63° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.