Was the forecast right for Seattle on Mon Sep 28?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Mon Sep 28 high anywhere from 55° to 67°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 67°. The day verified at 64° against the SEA observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-13 | — | 71° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 71–83° |
| 14d · 2026-09-14 | 59° | 55° | 57° | — | 67° | — | — | 55–67° |
| 13d · 2026-09-15 | 60° | 59° | 61° | — | 64° | — | — | 59–64° |
| 12d · 2026-09-16 | 65° | 61° | 66° | — | 68° | — | — | 61–68° |
| 11d · 2026-09-17 | 68° | 70° | 65° | — | 67° | — | — | 65–70° |
| 10d · 2026-09-18 | 64° | 72° | 62° | — | 78° | — | — | 62–78° |
| 9d · 2026-09-19 | 64° | 63° | 62° | 67° | 71° | — | — | 62–71° |
| 8d · 2026-09-20 | 64° | 70° | 64° | 65° | 70° | — | — | 64–70° |
| 7d · 2026-09-21 | 62° | 63° | 62° | 63° | 62° | 64° | — | 62–64° |
| 6d · 2026-09-22 | 60° | 65° | 61° | 63° | 66° | 66° | — | 60–66° |
| 5d · 2026-09-23 | 65° | 67° | 62° | 66° | 59° | 62° | 68° | 59–68° |
| 4d · 2026-09-24 | 65° | 68° | 64° | 65° | 66° | 62° | 66° | 62–68° |
| 3d · 2026-09-25 | 64° | 66° | 65° | 64° | 67° | 63° | 66° | 63–67° |
| 2d · 2026-09-26 | 64° | 66° | 64° | 66° | 67° | 65° | 66° | 64–67° |
| 1d · 2026-09-27 | 63° | 67° | 64° | 67° | 68° | 64° | 68° | 63–68° |
| actual | 64° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.