Was the forecast right for Seattle on Sat Sep 26?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Sat Sep 26 high anywhere from 61° to 78°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 62°. The day verified at 64° against the SEA observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-11 | — | 68° | — | — | 61° | — | — | 61–68° |
| 14d · 2026-09-12 | 61° | 71° | 78° | — | 71° | — | — | 61–78° |
| 13d · 2026-09-13 | 60° | 68° | 71° | — | 81° | — | — | 60–81° |
| 12d · 2026-09-14 | 70° | 64° | 62° | — | 64° | — | — | 62–70° |
| 11d · 2026-09-15 | 61° | 64° | 63° | — | 62° | — | — | 61–64° |
| 10d · 2026-09-16 | 65° | 59° | 63° | — | 65° | — | — | 59–65° |
| 9d · 2026-09-17 | 64° | 63° | 62° | 62° | 66° | — | — | 62–66° |
| 8d · 2026-09-18 | 67° | 70° | 64° | 60° | 67° | — | — | 60–70° |
| 7d · 2026-09-19 | 61° | 63° | 62° | 62° | 62° | 62° | — | 61–63° |
| 6d · 2026-09-20 | 62° | 60° | 62° | 60° | 63° | 62° | 62° | 60–63° |
| 5d · 2026-09-21 | 62° | 62° | 63° | 57° | 65° | 63° | 61° | 57–65° |
| 4d · 2026-09-22 | 61° | 62° | 61° | 61° | 64° | 62° | 64° | 61–64° |
| 3d · 2026-09-23 | 62° | 62° | 61° | 60° | 64° | 62° | 64° | 60–64° |
| 2d · 2026-09-24 | 62° | 61° | 60° | 63° | 63° | 61° | 64° | 60–64° |
| 1d · 2026-09-25 | 61° | 62° | 61° | 64° | 65° | 61° | 64° | 61–65° |
| actual | 64° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.