Was the forecast right for Seattle on Sat Sep 19?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 66° to 80°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 71°. The day verified at 63° against the SEA observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.7°. GFS ran 9° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-04 | — | 70° | — | — | 68° | — | — | 68–70° |
| 14d · 2026-09-05 | 66° | 80° | 66° | — | 69° | — | — | 66–80° |
| 13d · 2026-09-06 | 65° | 62° | 68° | — | 89° | — | — | 62–89° |
| 12d · 2026-09-07 | 64° | 71° | 76° | — | 69° | — | — | 64–76° |
| 11d · 2026-09-08 | 74° | 81° | 68° | — | 74° | — | — | 68–81° |
| 10d · 2026-09-09 | 65° | 68° | 69° | — | 72° | — | — | 65–72° |
| 9d · 2026-09-10 | 70° | 71° | 76° | — | 87° | — | — | 70–87° |
| 8d · 2026-09-11 | 66° | 82° | 66° | 70° | 82° | — | — | 66–82° |
| 7d · 2026-09-12 | 70° | 74° | 76° | 77° | 74° | — | — | 70–77° |
| 6d · 2026-09-13 | 64° | 72° | 65° | 67° | 77° | 71° | 71° | 64–77° |
| 5d · 2026-09-14 | 69° | 73° | 66° | 72° | 75° | 67° | 66° | 66–75° |
| 4d · 2026-09-15 | 65° | 70° | 68° | 71° | 75° | 69° | 72° | 65–75° |
| 3d · 2026-09-16 | 65° | 72° | 67° | 72° | 76° | 70° | 72° | 65–76° |
| 2d · 2026-09-17 | 65° | 72° | 67° | 73° | 76° | 70° | 72° | 65–76° |
| 1d · 2026-09-18 | 66° | 72° | 67° | 74° | 77° | 70° | 73° | 66–77° |
| 0d · 2026-09-19 | 65° | 71° | 66° | 71° | 72° | 67° | 72° | 65–72° |
| actual | 63° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.