Was the forecast right for Seattle on Fri Sep 18?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Fri Sep 18 high anywhere from 63° to 77°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 70°. The day verified at 69° against the SEA observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.0°. GFS ran 5° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-03 | — | 74° | — | — | 71° | — | — | 71–74° |
| 14d · 2026-09-04 | 68° | 63° | 65° | — | 77° | — | — | 63–77° |
| 13d · 2026-09-05 | 66° | 79° | 69° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–79° |
| 12d · 2026-09-06 | 66° | 59° | 66° | — | 84° | — | — | 59–84° |
| 11d · 2026-09-07 | 70° | 74° | 74° | — | 84° | — | — | 70–84° |
| 10d · 2026-09-08 | 72° | 74° | 69° | — | 70° | — | — | 69–74° |
| 9d · 2026-09-09 | 72° | 85° | 77° | 74° | 85° | — | — | 72–85° |
| 8d · 2026-09-10 | 74° | 82° | 80° | 75° | 86° | — | — | 74–86° |
| 7d · 2026-09-11 | 71° | 82° | 70° | 75° | 85° | — | — | 70–85° |
| 6d · 2026-09-12 | 72° | 82° | 74° | 75° | 86° | 80° | 80° | 72–86° |
| 5d · 2026-09-13 | 67° | 74° | 71° | 73° | 78° | 74° | 73° | 67–78° |
| 4d · 2026-09-14 | 68° | 74° | 70° | 73° | 75° | 70° | 71° | 68–75° |
| 3d · 2026-09-15 | 67° | 73° | 70° | 72° | 74° | 68° | 72° | 67–74° |
| 2d · 2026-09-16 | 67° | 72° | 70° | 72° | 74° | 68° | 73° | 67–74° |
| 1d · 2026-09-17 | 66° | 73° | 70° | 72° | 75° | 69° | 73° | 66–75° |
| 0d · 2026-09-18 | 68° | 70° | 70° | 71° | 74° | 69° | 72° | 68–74° |
| actual | 69° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.