Was the forecast right for Seattle on Sun Sep 13?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Sun Sep 13 high anywhere from 59° to 73°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 59°. The day verified at 60° against the SEA observations, with 0.55 in of precipitation — showers.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-29 | — | 74° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 74–77° |
| 14d · 2026-08-30 | 70° | 59° | 67° | — | 73° | — | — | 59–73° |
| 13d · 2026-08-31 | 67° | 59° | 67° | — | 66° | — | — | 59–67° |
| 12d · 2026-09-01 | 68° | 71° | 63° | — | 84° | — | — | 63–84° |
| 11d · 2026-09-02 | 66° | 58° | 79° | — | 77° | — | — | 58–79° |
| 10d · 2026-09-03 | 68° | 73° | 66° | — | 70° | — | — | 66–73° |
| 9d · 2026-09-04 | 70° | 69° | 60° | 70° | 72° | — | — | 60–72° |
| 8d · 2026-09-05 | 68° | 70° | 76° | 73° | 81° | — | — | 68–81° |
| 7d · 2026-09-06 | 59° | 71° | 69° | 69° | 73° | — | — | 59–73° |
| 6d · 2026-09-07 | 63° | 59° | 67° | 60° | 76° | 70° | 72° | 59–76° |
| 5d · 2026-09-08 | 64° | 58° | 68° | 66° | 74° | 66° | 71° | 58–74° |
| 4d · 2026-09-09 | 58° | 60° | 67° | 60° | 68° | 62° | 69° | 58–69° |
| 3d · 2026-09-10 | 63° | 57° | 69° | 69° | 66° | 69° | 74° | 57–74° |
| 2d · 2026-09-11 | 59° | 57° | 63° | 61° | 67° | 61° | 68° | 57–68° |
| 1d · 2026-09-12 | 58° | 55° | 61° | 60° | 57° | 60° | 65° | 55–65° |
| 0d · 2026-09-13 | 58° | 56° | 60° | 60° | 57° | 59° | 61° | 56–61° |
| actual | 60° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.