Was the forecast right for Seattle on Sat Sep 12?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Sat Sep 12 high anywhere from 61° to 74°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 67°. The day verified at 66° against the SEA observations, with 0.12 in of precipitation — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-28 | — | 65° | — | — | 68° | — | — | 65–68° |
| 14d · 2026-08-29 | 61° | 69° | 70° | — | 74° | — | — | 61–74° |
| 13d · 2026-08-30 | 68° | 75° | 70° | — | 87° | — | — | 68–87° |
| 12d · 2026-08-31 | 66° | 68° | 63° | — | 62° | — | — | 62–68° |
| 11d · 2026-09-01 | 66° | 70° | 62° | — | 77° | — | — | 62–77° |
| 10d · 2026-09-02 | 65° | 64° | 75° | — | 71° | — | — | 64–75° |
| 9d · 2026-09-03 | 69° | 70° | 62° | 65° | 71° | — | — | 62–71° |
| 8d · 2026-09-04 | 68° | 63° | 69° | 68° | 63° | — | — | 63–69° |
| 7d · 2026-09-05 | 63° | 66° | 68° | 68° | 77° | — | — | 63–77° |
| 6d · 2026-09-06 | 62° | 75° | 64° | 66° | 66° | 74° | 64° | 62–75° |
| 5d · 2026-09-07 | 59° | 69° | 63° | 66° | 65° | 67° | 66° | 59–69° |
| 4d · 2026-09-08 | 59° | 68° | 63° | 59° | 72° | 63° | 60° | 59–72° |
| 3d · 2026-09-09 | 63° | 64° | 62° | 68° | 68° | 60° | 63° | 60–68° |
| 2d · 2026-09-10 | 63° | 66° | 65° | 66° | 70° | 59° | 66° | 59–70° |
| 1d · 2026-09-11 | 62° | 67° | 68° | 71° | 72° | 65° | 64° | 62–72° |
| 0d · 2026-09-12 | 63° | 67° | 68° | 68° | 69° | 64° | 66° | 63–69° |
| actual | 66° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.