The Spread

Was the forecast right for Seattle on Fri Sep 11?

Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations

14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Fri Sep 11 high anywhere from 63° to 80°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 67°. The day verified at 67° against the SEA observations — drizzle.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.4°.

14 days out the models said 63–80; it hit 67. UKMO led (off 0.4°F).
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-27 72° 81° 72–81°
14d · 2026-08-28 63° 80° 68° 63° 63–80°
13d · 2026-08-29 66° 74° 69° 72° 66–74°
12d · 2026-08-30 67° 72° 72° 92° 67–92°
11d · 2026-08-31 65° 81° 62° 75° 62–81°
10d · 2026-09-01 72° 64° 71° 71° 64–72°
9d · 2026-09-02 62° 69° 71° 71° 71° 62–71°
8d · 2026-09-03 66° 62° 61° 65° 67° 61–67°
7d · 2026-09-04 70° 67° 70° 72° 71° 67–72°
6d · 2026-09-05 62° 62° 69° 77° 74° 68° 67° 62–77°
5d · 2026-09-06 65° 72° 68° 68° 63° 72° 68° 63–72°
4d · 2026-09-07 64° 68° 64° 63° 67° 66° 64° 63–68°
3d · 2026-09-08 64° 66° 64° 64° 66° 66° 66° 64–66°
2d · 2026-09-09 64° 66° 66° 66° 66° 67° 68° 64–68°
1d · 2026-09-10 65° 67° 68° 70° 68° 66° 68° 65–70°
0d · 2026-09-11 65° 66° 68° 68° 68° 66° 67° 65–68°
actual 67°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.