The Spread

Was the forecast right for Seattle on Wed Sep 2?

Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations

10 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 66° to 78°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 66°. The day verified at 70° against the SEA observations, with 0.23 in of precipitation — rain.

GEM landed closest, off by 1.4°. AIGFS ran 6° cold.

10 days out the models said 66–78; it hit 70. GEM led (off 1.4°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
10d · 2026-08-23 66° 68° 66° 78° 66–78°
9d · 2026-08-24 62° 56° 67° 61° 68° 56–68°
8d · 2026-08-25 65° 56° 66° 65° 60° 56–66°
7d · 2026-08-26 64° 58° 62° 61° 58° 58–64°
6d · 2026-08-27 61° 61° 64° 60° 58° 60° 63° 58–64°
5d · 2026-08-28 64° 59° 66° 64° 62° 64° 63° 59–66°
4d · 2026-08-29 62° 66° 70° 61° 65° 62° 63° 61–70°
3d · 2026-08-30 62° 66° 65° 64° 72° 63° 62° 62–72°
2d · 2026-08-31 63° 64° 65° 66° 65° 63° 68° 63–68°
1d · 2026-09-01 63° 64° 66° 67° 68° 66° 68° 63–68°
0d · 2026-09-02 65° 64° 67° 71° 67° 65° 66° 64–71°
actual 70°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.