The Spread

Was the forecast right for Seattle on Tue Sep 1?

Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations

9 days out, 5 models put Seattle's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 66° to 72°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 71°. The day verified at 66° against the SEA observations — drizzle.

AIFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. GFS ran 8° hot.

9 days out the models said 66–72; it hit 66. AIFS led (off 0.9°F); GFS ran 8°F hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
9d · 2026-08-23 66° 72° 72° 66° 72° 66–72°
8d · 2026-08-24 63° 67° 67° 69° 71° 63–71°
7d · 2026-08-25 63° 63° 70° 64° 71° 63–71°
6d · 2026-08-26 67° 71° 64° 71° 68° 69° 67° 64–71°
5d · 2026-08-27 70° 73° 68° 71° 74° 71° 66° 66–74°
4d · 2026-08-28 68° 76° 71° 72° 79° 72° 73° 68–79°
3d · 2026-08-29 67° 72° 76° 70° 79° 73° 74° 67–79°
2d · 2026-08-30 67° 69° 74° 70° 79° 69° 73° 67–79°
1d · 2026-08-31 67° 68° 72° 71° 77° 69° 71° 67–77°
0d · 2026-09-01 67° 68° 71° 71° 74° 68° 72° 67–74°
actual 66°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.