Was the forecast right for Seattle on Mon Aug 31?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations
8 days out, 5 models put Seattle's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 60° to 78°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 74°. The day verified at 76° against the SEA observations — cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. ICON ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-08-23 | 64° | 77° | 73° | 60° | 78° | — | — | 60–78° |
| 7d · 2026-08-24 | 70° | 66° | 62° | 69° | 73° | 84° | — | 62–84° |
| 6d · 2026-08-25 | 71° | 66° | 74° | 68° | 60° | 72° | 75° | 60–75° |
| 5d · 2026-08-26 | 71° | 74° | 74° | 72° | 76° | 73° | 74° | 71–76° |
| 4d · 2026-08-27 | 72° | 76° | 71° | 72° | 76° | 69° | 74° | 69–76° |
| 3d · 2026-08-28 | 72° | 76° | 72° | 71° | 78° | 70° | 76° | 70–78° |
| 2d · 2026-08-29 | 72° | 77° | 71° | 76° | 76° | 71° | 74° | 71–77° |
| 1d · 2026-08-30 | 72° | 76° | 72° | 78° | 76° | 71° | 74° | 71–78° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.