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Was the forecast right for Seattle on Wed Aug 26?

Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations

3 days out, 7 models put Seattle's Wed Aug 26 high anywhere from 74° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 77° against the SEA observations — cloudy.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 7° warm.

3 days out the models said 74–82; it hit 77. GEM led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 7°F warm.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
3d · 2026-08-23 74° 76° 78° 75° 82° 75° 75° 74–82°
2d · 2026-08-24 73° 78° 79° 76° 84° 75° 80° 73–84°
1d · 2026-08-25 72° 79° 78° 77° 84° 75° 78° 72–84°
actual 77°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.