Was the forecast right for Seattle on Fri Aug 7?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Fri Aug 7 high anywhere from 73° to 96°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 86° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.6°. AIFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-23 | — | 78° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 76–78° |
| 14d · 2026-07-24 | 82° | 73° | 96° | — | 78° | — | — | 73–96° |
| 13d · 2026-07-25 | 71° | 70° | 75° | — | 82° | — | — | 70–82° |
| 12d · 2026-07-26 | 72° | 78° | 75° | — | 88° | — | — | 72–88° |
| 11d · 2026-07-27 | 76° | 71° | 79° | — | 80° | — | — | 71–80° |
| 10d · 2026-07-28 | 75° | 85° | 71° | — | 82° | — | — | 71–85° |
| 9d · 2026-07-29 | 78° | 86° | 78° | 81° | 92° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 8d · 2026-07-30 | 78° | 81° | 84° | 78° | 90° | — | — | 78–90° |
| 7d · 2026-07-31 | 83° | 85° | 79° | 78° | 85° | 80° | — | 78–85° |
| 6d · 2026-08-01 | 78° | 87° | 82° | 82° | 91° | 84° | 85° | 78–91° |
| 5d · 2026-08-02 | 81° | 86° | 85° | 81° | 89° | 80° | 83° | 80–89° |
| 4d · 2026-08-03 | 82° | 88° | 89° | 82° | 88° | 78° | 85° | 78–89° |
| 3d · 2026-08-04 | 79° | 87° | 86° | 80° | 92° | 80° | 81° | 79–92° |
| 2d · 2026-08-05 | 79° | 89° | 86° | 80° | 87° | 80° | 82° | 79–89° |
| 1d · 2026-08-06 | 79° | 88° | 85° | 83° | 83° | 80° | 84° | 79–88° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.