Was the forecast right for Seattle on Wed Aug 5?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Wed Aug 5 high anywhere from 76° to 87°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 84° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-21 | — | 75° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 75–86° |
| 14d · 2026-07-22 | 76° | 87° | 79° | — | 79° | — | — | 76–87° |
| 13d · 2026-07-23 | 66° | 90° | 72° | — | 79° | — | — | 66–90° |
| 12d · 2026-07-24 | 85° | 72° | 88° | — | 86° | — | — | 72–88° |
| 11d · 2026-07-25 | 82° | 77° | 77° | — | 83° | — | — | 77–83° |
| 10d · 2026-07-26 | 83° | 85° | 81° | — | 84° | — | — | 81–85° |
| 9d · 2026-07-27 | 81° | 83° | 82° | 81° | 80° | — | — | 80–83° |
| 8d · 2026-07-28 | 83° | 93° | 64° | 80° | 90° | — | — | 64–93° |
| 7d · 2026-07-29 | 85° | 91° | 83° | 78° | 85° | 82° | — | 78–91° |
| 6d · 2026-07-30 | 83° | 92° | 85° | 79° | 85° | 82° | 89° | 79–92° |
| 5d · 2026-07-31 | 84° | 90° | 84° | 78° | 85° | 82° | 85° | 78–90° |
| 4d · 2026-08-01 | 85° | 92° | 87° | 80° | 88° | 84° | 85° | 80–92° |
| 3d · 2026-08-02 | 84° | 92° | 88° | 81° | 86° | 83° | 84° | 81–92° |
| 2d · 2026-08-03 | 84° | 90° | 86° | 82° | 86° | 81° | 84° | 81–90° |
| 1d · 2026-08-04 | 82° | 90° | 84° | 83° | 84° | 80° | 83° | 80–90° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.