Was the forecast right for Seattle on Sun Aug 2?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Sun Aug 2 high anywhere from 67° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 68°. The day verified at 69° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.01 in of precipitation — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-18 | — | 79° | — | — | 82° | — | — | 79–82° |
| 14d · 2026-07-19 | 67° | 73° | 84° | — | 78° | — | — | 67–84° |
| 13d · 2026-07-20 | 76° | 70° | 74° | — | 82° | — | — | 70–82° |
| 12d · 2026-07-21 | 75° | 78° | 75° | — | 75° | — | — | 75–78° |
| 11d · 2026-07-22 | 68° | 70° | 73° | — | 76° | — | — | 68–76° |
| 10d · 2026-07-23 | 70° | 69° | 74° | — | 84° | — | — | 69–84° |
| 9d · 2026-07-24 | 71° | 69° | 73° | 71° | 75° | — | — | 69–75° |
| 8d · 2026-07-25 | 69° | 70° | 72° | 69° | 74° | — | — | 69–74° |
| 7d · 2026-07-26 | 68° | 71° | 70° | 65° | 74° | 70° | — | 65–74° |
| 6d · 2026-07-27 | 68° | 73° | 70° | 68° | 75° | 69° | 70° | 68–75° |
| 5d · 2026-07-28 | 69° | 72° | 69° | 68° | 74° | 68° | 69° | 68–74° |
| 4d · 2026-07-29 | 69° | 70° | 70° | 67° | 74° | 70° | 69° | 67–74° |
| 3d · 2026-07-30 | 68° | 70° | 69° | 66° | 74° | 69° | 69° | 66–74° |
| 2d · 2026-07-31 | 68° | 71° | 70° | 70° | 68° | 69° | 70° | 68–71° |
| 1d · 2026-08-01 | 67° | 68° | 70° | 70° | 67° | 68° | 69° | 67–70° |
| actual | 69° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.