Was the forecast right for Seattle on Tue Jul 28?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
11 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Tue Jul 28 high anywhere from 70° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 73°. The day verified at 74° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.6°. AIFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Jul 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-07-17 | 70° | 75° | 72° | — | 82° | — | — | 70–82° |
| 10d · 2026-07-18 | 67° | 72° | 76° | — | 77° | — | — | 67–77° |
| 9d · 2026-07-19 | 66° | 72° | 73° | 75° | 78° | — | — | 66–78° |
| 8d · 2026-07-20 | 64° | 77° | 72° | 69° | 77° | — | — | 64–77° |
| 7d · 2026-07-21 | 68° | 76° | 70° | 61° | 79° | 78° | — | 61–79° |
| 6d · 2026-07-22 | 69° | 78° | 76° | 73° | 82° | 70° | 78° | 69–82° |
| 5d · 2026-07-23 | 70° | 77° | 76° | 72° | 80° | 70° | 72° | 70–80° |
| 4d · 2026-07-24 | 71° | 76° | 74° | 72° | 80° | 66° | 73° | 66–80° |
| 3d · 2026-07-25 | 70° | 73° | 74° | 70° | 77° | 73° | 72° | 70–77° |
| 2d · 2026-07-26 | 71° | 73° | 74° | 74° | 75° | 72° | 72° | 71–75° |
| 1d · 2026-07-27 | 71° | 72° | 73° | 76° | 73° | 73° | 75° | 71–76° |
| actual | 74° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.