Was the forecast right for Seattle on Sun Jul 26?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
9 days out, 5 models put Seattle's Sun Jul 26 high anywhere from 68° to 78°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 70°. The day verified at 72° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.2 in of precipitation — rain.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.7°. GEM ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Jul 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-07-17 | 68° | 77° | 74° | 74° | 78° | — | — | 68–78° |
| 8d · 2026-07-18 | 65° | 74° | 78° | 72° | 74° | — | — | 65–78° |
| 7d · 2026-07-19 | 65° | 72° | 81° | 68° | 70° | — | — | 65–81° |
| 6d · 2026-07-20 | 68° | 72° | 77° | 69° | 73° | 76° | 74° | 68–77° |
| 5d · 2026-07-21 | 68° | 72° | 70° | 64° | 62° | 67° | 76° | 62–76° |
| 4d · 2026-07-22 | 65° | 77° | 72° | 69° | 81° | 66° | 68° | 65–81° |
| 3d · 2026-07-23 | 64° | 76° | 68° | 69° | 80° | 70° | 69° | 64–80° |
| 2d · 2026-07-24 | 69° | 72° | 72° | 68° | 73° | 64° | 74° | 64–74° |
| 1d · 2026-07-25 | 70° | 73° | 70° | 75° | 70° | 70° | 73° | 70–75° |
| actual | 72° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.