Was the forecast right for Seattle on Tue Jul 21?

Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

4 days out, 7 models put Seattle's Tue Jul 21 high anywhere from 82° to 90°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 89° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. ICON ran 5° cool.

4 days out the models said 82–90; it hit 89. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); ICON ran 5°F cool. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Jul 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
4d · 2026-07-17	85°	89°	86°	82°	90°	82°	88°	82–90°
3d · 2026-07-18	84°	87°	86°	78°	90°	80°	88°	78–90°
2d · 2026-07-19	85°	88°	89°	77°	89°	82°	88°	77–89°
1d · 2026-07-20	85°	92°	89°	89°	90°	84°	88°	84–92°
actual								89°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.